This drop has passed. Last reading: no call — no sold prices for this exact product, drop date Oct 28, 2026, filed Oct 23, 2026. The call below is kept exactly as filed — DropForecast grades every call in public on the ledger. All off-board forecasts → · Live forecasts →
No call — No sold prices for this exact product yet. DropForecast prints no resale multiple for 2026 Topps Five Star Baseball (dropped Oct 28, 2026) until a human has paid a price for this exact product.
Last updated Oct 23, 2026
Demand 100/100 for 2026 Topps Five Star Baseball decomposes into the channels below; Win odds 19% comes from the scarcity flags. Scored by the learned discriminator (fit on 58 resolved drops), Signal 7/10 — coverage, not confidence.
On the supply side: no hard allocation squeeze is confirmed yet; it is not a collab product; and it is not headed for mass-retail shelves, which protects scarcity. These flags move as retailer listings, allocation chatter and restock behavior surface — this page updated nightly until the drop.
2 stories filed about 2026 Topps Five Star Baseball in the last two weeks, pulled from the hobby press and an open-web sweep. Dates below are the dates the stories are ABOUT — a preorder or street date — not when they were published.
At a $50 box, the modelled expected value is $29.8 — an edge of $-20.2 (-40.4%). Call: BUY SINGLES (−EV — the chase you want is cheaper à la carte). Every row below is a pull rate times a market value; the EV column is what that slot contributes to one box, which is why a $400 chase can still leave a box underwater.
| Slot | Rate | Value | Odds / box | EV contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platinum ASG 1/1 (jackpot) | 1 in 4706 | $400 | 0.3% | $1.19 |
| Red ASG /5 | 1 in 931 | $120 | 1.5% | $1.8 |
| Black ASG /10 | 1 in 468 | $60 | 3.0% | $1.79 |
| Orange ASG /25 | 1 in 187 | $30 | 7.2% | $2.25 |
| Gold ASG /50 | 1 in 94 | $15 | 13.9% | $2.23 |
| Green ASG /99 | 1 in 48 | $8 | 25.5% | $2.33 |
| Base ASG parallel (star/rookie carries it) | 1 in 3 | $1.5 | 99.7% | $7.0 |
| Base + insert floor | 1 in 1 | $0.8 | 100.0% | $11.2 |
Sources: Parallel odds OFFICIAL (Beckett/Topps: Green ASG /99 1:48, Gold /50 1:94, Orange /25 1:187, Black /10 1:468, Red /5 1:931, Platinum 1/1 1:4,706; base parallel 1:3). Box $50 (Target/DSG). Card VALUES estimated — sports value is player-driven, a hot rookie's parallel is worth multiples; refresh vs eBay.
Dated events that landed alongside comp movement on this item. This is correlation, not proof of cause — it is published so you can judge the link yourself.
Forecast for Cards. A pre-drop resale-demand forecast from public signals, not investment advice or a guarantee — resale markets move. DropForecast grades every call in public at /scoreboard.
