Every drop gets a file: what is coming, why it will be chased, how little of it exists — opened before the resale market has anything to react to. BUY / WATCH / PASS is what those inputs compute to — a reading, not a suggestion.
Under coverage: Topps Chrome · Bowman Chrome · Panini Flawless · Disney Sapphire
This is one file. The desk never stops filing.
An open file is what the desk knew at one timestamp. Arbitrage Alpha is the desk running live: Origination Radar reading 8-K filings for supply nobody has reported yet, Igniting Now, Radar Watch, sell-by windows and net in hand across every covered lane — re-scored continuously, not nightly. $100/mo.
Ask for any line and the desk opens the whole file: the heat index out of 100 and the three inputs behind it (brand weight, grade lift and window urgency, each out of 20), the forecast multiple from the Drop Forecast model, the odds that multiple clears 2×, net in hand after venue fees and shipping, and the sell-by window. No rating is published without the inputs that produced it. Every rating is logged on the date it is filed and graded once the window closes — the record so far is backtested across 58 resolved drops at 78%, and nothing has resolved live yet. The Scoreboard carries both numbers.
The board carries the raw model verdict — COP, WATCH or AVOID — and the dossier renders it as BUY / WATCH / PASS, computed from the inputs above rather than handed down. 118 lines are under coverage today. The ones being chased hardest: